Here, I would like to show example of creating brand plan of fictitious new antihistamine drug “Product X”
- Pts journey: Quantitative analysis
- Pts journey Qualitative analysis
- Pts journey : Qualitative research, dr interview
- Pts journey: Qualitative research, patients
- Pts journey : To-dos before quant research
- Pts journey; Quant market research
- Pts journey: Pts Quant Research
- Quantify Pts Journey by Market Research Results
- Pts Journey based Forecast Model
- Insight for Pts Journey
- Current/Desired Perception
- Let's try Insight Workshop
- Segmentation, Easy to Say, Difficult to Use
- What is Brand Strategy? CSF?
Two years after you joined Insight Pharma, you took a new position as launch leader (in the marketing department) for Product X, an oral drug that works for once a month after a single dose and is marketed for the indication of allergic rhinitis.
- Insight pharma's
second product launch - Insight pharma's existing brand is a Parkinson's disease drug with 40 sales reps and promotion in neurology
- Results of P3 study of Product X showed good results in terms of both safety and efficacy.
- Main target of Japanese market is cedar pollinosis patients
- Mode of action is antihistamine
- Efficacy and safety are equivalent to levocetirizin
- Once administered, the effect lasts for 1 month
Allergic rhinitis information is not yet fully available at Insight pharma. You may be at a loss as to where to start when you are handed a blank piece of paper and told to create a Launch Brand Plan on it. Anyway, let's start by doing some desk research!
It's easy to search for “allergic rhinitis” or “hay fever,” but what further research do I need to do? If you don't know what to look for, you can't look for it. Sometimes it is necessary to search in the dark, but the first step is to find out what is the treatment for allergic rhinitis, especially (cedar) hay fever. In order to make sure there are no omissions, it is recommended to follow the flow of the Pts Journey to investigate both qualitatively and quantitatively.
There are many ways to describe the pts journey, customer journey, treatment journey etc. The pts journey visualizes the upstream to downstream flow (journey) that leads patients (customers) to treatment including the company's products and continues treatment. A common pattern is to start from upstream
- Prevalence: awareness of hay fever symptoms (even if not aware of hay fever)
- Seek treatment: Visit a medical institution with this symptom as the main complaint
- Diagnosis: Diagnosis of hay fever
- Treatment choice: Which treatment is selected at the level of drug therapy or other therapies?
- Brand choice: Which product (the company's product) will be chosen in case of drug treatment?
- Adherance: How long the patient will continue to take the company's product
It's okay to leave things you don't know at the beginning with a “? It's okay to leave things you don't know at the beginning with a “? You can check what you don't know later in the market research. I use EXCEL to keep track of the information I find out, because I forget a lot of information.
A search for “hay fever, number of patients” brings up this page from the Ministry of the Environment.
The prevalence of hay fever and cedar pollinosis was found to be 42.5% and 38.8%, respectively. Since the population of Japan is about 120 million, this means that there are about 50 million hay fever sufferers in Japan. It is important to note that the word “prevalence” has a different meaning depending on whether the 42.5% figure is “calculated from the number of people who have visited a medical institution and been diagnosed” or “investigated through an epidemiological survey.
The data source is "Atsushi Matsubara et al. Japanese Otorhinolaryngological Society Bulletin 123-487 Figure 2 “Modified with permission", so found original paper here
The questionnaire survey is an epidemiological survey, which means that the number of hay fever sufferers in Japan is about 50 million, which is equivalent to the number of people who are aware of their symptoms. Prevalence of hay fever (awareness of symptoms) is about 50 million people in Japan.
It's important to question yourself, “Are you sure these numbers are correct?” I would double-check. The numbers in this case are from a large-scale epidemiological survey of over 10,000 people conducted by the Japanese Otolaryngological Society, so they seem to be highly credible. (Although the fact that the survey respondents are family members of otolaryngologists might be a little biased.)
Once the Prevalence is known, we will continue to look further and further downstream. We can search for “seek treatment = medical attention,” “diagnosis,” and so on. In the same way, we search for information such as
- Do you have hay fever? （n=1000)
- I have hay fever (diagnosed at hospital) 21.3
- I have hay fever (I have not been to a hospital) 19.5
- Have had hay fever, but currently have no symptoms 6.2
- Never had hay fever 39.9
- Don't know if I have hay fever 13.1
https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000026.000018991.html
https://www.asmarq.co.jp/data/mr201804hayfever/
https://www.asmarq.co.jp/data/mr201804hayfever/
The survey is quite large (n=1000) and seems to be credible since it seems to be conducted randomly among men and women in their 20s to 60s. Since 21.3% of the respondents had been diagnosed with hay fever at a hospital, it means that about 25 million people (120 million Japanese population x 21.3% = 25 million) have been diagnosed with hay fever at a hospital, i.e., half of those who have symptoms have been diagnosed with hay fever at a hospital.
The next question is "What kind of treatment". Well, here's some data from the same survey.
30.4% “take oral medications prescribed by a doctor
However, it is important to note what the denominator of the percentage is. If we look at the data, we can see that n=408 in the denominator indicates people who self-report that they have hay fever, so we can calculate that 50 million people * 30.4% = 15 million people “take oral medication prescribed by a doctor”. Here
- Diagnosed in hospital with hay fever: 25 million people
- Take prescription oral medication: 15 million people
It is a very good feeling to think “Common sense says that if you go to a hospital, they will prescribe oral medication for hay fever... It is strange that 10 million people are omitted here (10 million people are not prescribed oral medication even if they go to a hospital)...”. The numbers in the desk research are still rough, so you can note your concerns in the pts journey and resolve them in future market research. At the time of desk research, it is important to understand the general framework of the project.
The next step is “drug therapy,” so the direct competitor is an antihistamine with the same mechanism of action, so we will examine its share and the number of patients administered.
According to this article, sales of second-generation antihistamines are available, but, hmm, it's difficult to find a number... The top seller, Pyranor, has sales of 16.5 billion yen, and the drug price is 71.3 yen per pill -> one pill is taken once a day, so hay fever lasts 2 months, some people are on medication because they have allergies all year round ->... Assuming roughly an average dosing period of 3 months, that means about 2.5 million people are taking the medication. The information we want is.
- What percentage of patients on medications are taking antihistamines?
So, if you imagine that “almost all patients on drug therapy receive antihistamines” and “the top share drug is taken by one million people,” it would be sufficient at this point to do some market research. If we consider that the competition for Product X is “antihistamines taken every day,” then perhaps the % share of each brand of antihistamine is not really necessary information.
We don't know yet about the continuation of medication and such in the future, and with OTC drugs becoming more popular, you would think that the people who “don't go to the hospital” should also be included in the pts journey.
- Take OTC (over-the-counter) medicine = 43.0%
- Get prescription drugs from medical institutions = 31.7%
あとは病院に行かない理由もあったりで使えそうな情報ですが、市販薬市場もかなり多そう。
The rest of this information could be used for some reasons not to go to the hospital, but there seems to be a lot of over-the-counter drug market as well.
Now we understand
- Hay fever market is huge
- Prescription drug market (antihistamines) market is also huge
- 25 million people are aware of hay fever but do not go to the hospital
- 43% of people take over-the-counter drugs, more than the 31.7% who take prescription drugs
In this huge market, a red ocean of competition, where to start? Basically, the opportunities in the pts journey are large where there is a lot of leakage = many patients are dropping out, but it is easy to deal with downstream (brand choice, medication continuation...) and difficult to deal with upstream (disease awareness, DTC). Therefore, in most cases, brand choice is the most important moment to tackle, unless the product is unique and groundbreaking. In the case of Product X, I think we can get a good idea at this point that brand choice is the most important point to be addressed, and that it will be difficult to extend the duration of medication because the hay fever season lasts for two months.
If we quantify the pts journey in this way and reflect the results of the quantitative survey to be conducted later, it will become a Forecast Model, so the Brand Plan and Forecast Model are inseparable when considering business simulation, but that is a topic for another time. But that is a topic for another time.
Now that we have roughly quantified the pts journey, let's add some qualitative information.
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