2025年3月23日日曜日

(14) What is Brand Strategy? CSF?

Insight based Brand Plan

I wrote that although the word "positioning" is widely used, its definition and image vary from person to person, and explained that positioning is a desired perception, a state in which "if customers recognize your product in that way in their mind, then they will choose your product."

、We were able to come up with many desired perceptions for each customer and moment, but you could say we have been thinking about desired perception = positioning of product X for each "customer group (segment)" and "important moment."


When formulating actual action, all you need to do is think carefully about how to change the current perception of an important segment into a desired perception, so there is a desired perception = positioning for each segment and moment. However, in brand plans that are reviewed by Japanese senior management and global executives, a "single position statement" is required, not for each segment or moment, so we need to effectively organize and unify the desired perceptions that we have created up to now. To be honest, I think that "it's fine if there is a positioning = desired perception for each customer and moment," but many brand plan templates require a template that summarizes the positioning of the brand, important strategies, messages, etc. on one page, so I feel like I have to make one (I think that's what a summary slide should be).

To create this one slide, you will need to compile many of the analyses and materials you have created so far, including current/desired. In the case of Product X, the segment we should focus on the most is "Doctors who prescribe Product X less than 50% of the time," and brand choice is important, so we've summarized it like this, focusing on that segment.

First-choice antihistamine that provides hay fever-free life for two months with just two tablets taken twice a day
The fact that the effects of a single dose of the medication last for a month not only helps patients remember to take the medication, but also has the great benefit of making patients "pollen-fever free" and forgetting that they have hay fever. The drug price is about 1.5 times higher than existing drugs, but the side effects are similar to those of existing drugs, so there is not much to worry about. I prescribe two tablets to my hay fever patients before the season.

The bold black parts are summarized as "short sentences that are in keeping with the Global context" and then a positioning statement (≒ a summary of the desired perception of each moment) is included. If you write it like this, you can include all the insight elements.

 Finally, we come to today's topic: strategy. A strategy is "the process or steps for achieving desired perception = positioning," but I hope you can remember it with an image like this one rather than with words.



Achieving this positioning of Product X (i.e., reaching a state where the target physicians have the desired perception) through a single activity or message is quite difficult, so in many cases it is better to design a path or steps to get there. So, although I define Strategy in writing as "the path or steps for achieving Desired Perception (≒positioning)," I think this is easier to remember in the image above.

For product X, we summarized the current/desired for each segment like this:


If you think about it, what would be the strategy for product X?
  1. understand Product X profile: "One-time administration, effect lasts for one month" Eliminate concerns about side effects
  2. Understand the importance of patient needs for a "hay fever-free" treatment that offers greater benefits than switching to existing medications (breaking down the barrier of satisfaction with existing medications)
  3. Product X becomes the first choice drug, and 2 tablets per season = 2 months' supply is prescribed.
It's also OK to think in check box like this;

□ Understanding product characteristics (effectiveness/safety)
□ Patient Benefit: Product X >> Existing drug → Prescribe Product X
□ Product X = First-choice drug
□ 2 tablets of product X per season = 2 months' supply

Anyway, strategic element essential to achieving the success of product X (positioning), so these decomposed elements of strategy are
  • Critical Success Factor (CSF)
  • Key Success Factors (KSFs)
It is called. It doesn't matter whether you use CSF or KSF, so I created a slide that also includes the positioning statement mentioned earlier.  Here is slide example incorporating positioning statement



At this point, Positioning, Strategy, CSF/KSF, Key messages, and high-level actions are all summarized on a single slide. I just organized the analysis I've done so far and what has come up in the workshops. Senior management and global reviewers are accustomed to reviewing from macro to micro, so this type of slide encompasses the entire brand plan, so be sure to create it carefully. If you have done a lot of analysis and work along the Pts journey that I have written so far, you will be able to make this slide without any problems. However, this is quite a high-level slide, so slides that go into more detail and explain what to do for each segment? What are the key actions? are also often made. (Sorry, the action is still poor...)


As you may have noticed, there are 65,000 doctors across the country who prescribe antihistamines, so it would be an enormous task to try to cover everyone with medical representatives. On the other hand, Peak's drug sales are about 17 billion yen, so if it were a mega-product that could earn 100 billion yen, we could consider hiring 1,000 sales reps... but since we are not at that level, the next thing we need to think about is how many MRs we should have and how many resources we should allocate to promotion.


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(13) Segmentation, Easy to Say, Difficult to Use

Insight based Brand Plan

Segmentation has become so common knowledge in the pharmaceutical industry that it seems like there is no company that doesn't use it in pharmaceutical marketing. However, there are also cases where it is not used properly, or where it is just divided because it is said to be used. The purpose of segmenting is to "change key messages, actions, and channels to tailor an approach to customers with different thoughts, feelings, and resulting actions to achieve results." In the past, segmentation was commonly known as "medical department" or "doctor potential," and now the two are mixed together, which I think is the cause of confusion in the mind and the reason it is not being used effectively. I hope this article will help you organize your thoughts on this point.

Before getting into the main topic of segmentation, let's take a moment to summarize what I've done so far, organize my thoughts, and organize my materials. I have been thinking about how to change the current perception of key stakeholders at important moments in the Pts journey into the desired perception, but after much analysis and work, the points have become somewhat scattered, so let me start by summarizing them. Here again the axis is pts journey. What are the four moments of opportunity for us?

  1. Seek treatment: If you feel symptoms, visit a doctor for hay fever.
  2. Brand Choice: Doctor prescribes product X among antihistamines
  3. Taking frequency: Number of times you take the medicine/hay fever season (once or twice)
  4. Pts acceptance: Patient acceptance of product X

At each moment

  • A brief explanation of moment
  • Size of upside opportunity (number of patients, amount)
  • driver/barrier
  • Priority

I'll try to summarize it all on one page.


This summary method lacks insight, but it is a high-level summary document so don't worry about it. Looking at it this way, we can see that brand choice and Rx frequency are (as expected) high priorities.

Our key stakeholders are, of course, the "doctors who prescribe antihistamines" and the "patients who visit us for hay fever," but we have to consider whether it is okay to lump them together as "doctors" and "patients." It may be more effective to group doctors based on their thoughts, behaviors, and differences and then deliver tailored messages and actions to them. Segmentation is the process of dividing customers into several groups for this purpose. When creating the insights for Pts Journey, we also considered dividing doctors into two groups: those with a high intention to prescribe Product X and those with a low intention to do so. In that sense, you could say that segmentation had already begun.

Why did you divide doctors into two groups, "high/low intention to prescribe product X"? Let's say you created an insight for all "antihistamine prescribing doctors" in one group, instead of dividing them into two. The survey results show that only 40% of doctors are willing to prescribe antihistamines overall, but what we are aiming for is
  • How can we get more prescriptions for product X?
  • What is that driver/barrier?
  • What does the doctor really think?
Therefore, rather than consolidating all doctors into one set of information, dividing them into groups with high and low prescribing intention, creating two insights based on the survey results and contrasting them to consider the gap will allow you to gain a deeper understanding of customers' true feelings and clarify from gap analysis (current/desired perception) how customers' thinking needs to be changed, making it easier to plan strategies and actions. It will also make it clearer and more efficient to focus your efforts on the group of doctors with low prescribing intention.

Speaking of segmentation in the past
  • By specialties
  • By potential (by# of treating patients)
But I don't think this was a mistake. As for medical departments, if the insight (= current perception) of ways of thinking, feelings, etc. differs for each department, I think segmentation by medical department is also OK. However, I don't think it makes sense to separate them simply because it is easier to do so by medical specialty, when their thoughts and feelings are the same. (They are satisfied with dividing up, and they divided up because the Brand Plan template said to do so...) The purpose of dividing up by segment is to "achieve results by tailoring their approach to customer groups with different thoughts, feelings, and resulting behaviors by changing key messages, actions, and channels," so there is no point in blindly dividing up by medical department.

This is by potential (by existing patients and remaining patients), but it is efficient to allocate a large amount of activity to high potential customers, so it is reasonable to "split" them. However, if we divide patients "only" by potential, we will not be able to segment them based on differences in doctors' insight, feelings, and actions. Recommendations are organized like this, with segments based on feelings and behavior on the vertical axis (in this case, prescription status of product X) and potential on the horizontal axis.


Then, the following metric was created. The qualitative content of "communication" will not change if the "segment based on feelings and behavior" is the same, but if the doctor's potential is high (the number of patients is large), the doctor will visit more frequently, and if the potential is low, the doctor will visit less.


I think it's a good idea to use "By Potential" to prioritize visit frequency, like this: In this case, even if the potential is high, there is no need to visit doctors for whom product X is already their first choice, so the frequency of visits does not need to be so high. In this way, the element of potential is added while retaining the "segmentation based on feelings and behavior" that is important in marketing in the insight era on the vertical axis.

In the previous slide, we divided antihistamine prescribing physicians into three segments.
  • Product X Unprescribed
  • Product X prescription rate is less than 50%
  • Product X prescription rate at 50% or higher
This method of segmentation is similar to adoption ladders, and is easy for sales reps to distinguish and understand, but some marketing geeks (especially the big-headed consultants at Global) point out that this type of "segmentation by prescription behavior" "should be segmented more by feelings, insight!" What they're saying is true according to marketing textbooks! But don't just look at the surface - the names of the segments... Even if you segment by prescription behavior, isn't it OK as long as you properly capture the feelings and insights behind it, and there are differences between each segment? That's what I think. For example, if you segment doctors by feelings and insights (segment names),

  • Patient Outcomes First Priority Doctor
  • Doctors not interested in antihistamines
  • …
To be honest, this segmentation is difficult to distinguish and use in the field (sales rep). As a segmentation, it is "beautiful" and "the way it should be," but if it cannot be used, it is a building of cards, so I think it is better to avoid this kind of "beautiful but not practical" segmentation. The trick is to actually "separate them by prescription behavior", but I changed the name a little bit to reflect the insight.
  • Doctors with no interest in antihistamines (doctors who do not prescribe product X)
  • Physicians satisfied with existing drugs (doctors with a prescription rate of less than 50% for product X)
  • Patient treatment outcomes top priority physicians (physicians with a prescription rate of 50% or more for product X)
In fact, there were times when they managed to escape Global's notice by disguising their information in such a way. I think it's better to pick the fruit from there. I mentioned that the reason for segmenting is to "achieve results by tailoring an approach to customers with different thoughts, feelings, and resulting behaviors by changing key messages, actions, and channels." However, in order to "achieve results," it is difficult for sales reps to achieve results unless they can easily determine "which segment my target physician belongs to." Therefore, "being able to easily identify segments" is also a necessary condition for segmenting.

The Brand Team compiled the current/desired and key drivers/barriers for each segment that were "usable and easy to use" and compiled them on one sheet.


The way in which this is put together will vary depending on each company's brand plan template, so please create it based on an appropriate template. We also recommend creating one sheet for each segment that includes insights and even a persona.

This can also be created using the information you have gathered so far, and having this material will allow an image of the doctor in that segment to pop into the mind of anyone who watches the video. Once you create this for each doctor and patient segment, it becomes easy to explain the segmentation.

To summarize the important points when doing segmentation:
  • Segmentation based on feelings and behavior (insight) is important in the age of insight
  • Of course, potential is also important
  • It is a good idea to capture both insights on the vertical axis and potentials on the horizontal axis.
  • It would be good to have a slide that summarises the information for all segments.
  • It is convenient to create slides that summarize each segment for easy explanation.
 Once we get to this point, the next step is to talk about strategy, or designing the path to reach the desired thing.


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(12) Let's try Insight Workshop

Insight based Brand Plan

 In the previous article, we considered the messages and actions to achieve the two high-priority moments of the pts journey: "current perception = true feelings of patients and doctors ≒ insight" and "desired perception = if customers think this way, they will take the desired action." This series of workshops, which involves all members of the brand team, helps brand team members to gain a deeper understanding of the market and customers, and is very effective in planning strategies and actions. We call this workshop the insight workshop.

A workshop cannot be held just by saying, "Let's have an insight workshop!" If a workshop is held without sufficient preparation, it can turn into a "brain storm" workshop, where ideas are just spam. That would be a waste of time, so it's important to prepare thoroughly, confirm the purpose of the workshop, and facilitate it.

Typical agenda, flow of insight workshop is as follows;

（1）Workshop objective

There will likely be some members of the brand team who are not familiar with Insight workshops, so be sure to clearly explain the purpose of the workshop. The explanation was something like, "You need to plan your strategies and actions after knowing your customers' true feelings at each moment, not just quantitatively but qualitatively, because..." However, I think it would be a good idea for participants to read my articles "Three Eras of Pharmaceutical Promotion and Marketing" and "The Limitations of SoV Supremacy" in advance. Running a workshop without a clear objective will result in failure. This explanation should best be given by the Brand team leader.

(2) Recap market understanding, pts journey


We will review the market in which Product X will enter (number of patients, number of doctors, medical specialties, competitive situation, etc.) and the pts journey. There are differences in knowledge of the market and Pharmaceutical X among the members of the Brand Team, so it is a good idea to review and confirm that knowledge. This is often done by a brand manager or market researcher.

The qualitative and quantitative research will likely be completed before the workshop, so the researchers should present the results to the participants. In a presentation, it is best to briefly summarize key information and the results of customer agreement on levels 1-7 for each moment. Rather than just quantitative information such as "how many patients there are," it is best to include many explanations of the levels of agreement on levels 1-7, such as "The level of agreement of doctors at this moment with this statement is..." This will make it easier to extract insights. The full market research results will be used as reference material in the next group work.

(3) insight of key moments（group work）

By reviewing the market and pts journey, the participants' understanding had improved considerably, and they were ready to visualize questions such as, "What are doctors' feelings and thoughts when it comes to brand choice?" This is where the real group work begins. It would be time-consuming to work through every moment and every key stakeholder in the Pts journey, so it is best to decide in advance "which customer at which moment will you provide insight for?" Participants' understanding will be deepened if you show them an idea of the output before starting the work. (This is a moment that is not covered in the workshop, but it is easier to understand if the customer makes it.)


Once the participants have an idea of the output, we ask them to share their honest thoughts and insights using post-it notes or other means. At this time, the results of the market research are printed out and left in each group as reference material so that they can refer to it, and the market researcher wanders around the venue to answer any questions from the participants at any time. Facilitators who are familiar with insight workshops will also go around to each group and help resolve any deviations or stalls in the discussion.

When there are many moments (treatment choice, brand choice, etc.) and many key stakeholders (doctors, patients, nurses, etc.), we often ask participants to think of insights for different key stakeholders for each group, such as group B for "brand choice, doctors" and group B for "seek treatment, patients."

We prepare a template like this in advance and have each group fill out their insights.


I'm sure you'll come up with a lot of different ideas, but it can be quite difficult to put them into words in a format that will fit into a speech bubble. Also, when putting it into writing, it can easily become stiff and important elements of insight such as the customer's feelings and true opinions can be lost, so it is recommended that you have them write it in "casual expressions" and "colloquial, spoken language". When I facilitate, I often give the advice, "Try starting with 'To be honest...'" Putting this into writing can be quite difficult, so the facilitator should provide appropriate advice. Once completed, present it to all participants.

(3) Desired perception （group work）

Once insight (current perception) is complete, the next step is desired perception. As I wrote in my previous article, when we think about desired perception, we tend to spread it around, but the facilitator or the leader of the brand team should always remind us to think about desired perception, which is the doctor's way of thinking and feelings, which is a necessary condition for a doctor to take action such as, for example, "How can I prescribe product X among antihistamines?"

(4) Action to fill the gap Current/Desired （group work）

Now that we have established current/desired perception, let's think as a group about actions, elements, and messages that can close the gap. At this point, I expect participants to come up with many ideas based on their understanding of the insight, but if you are not careful, the event may end up being just a list of means such as "lectures" or "information sessions." Of course, the "means to realize desired perception" are important, but what kind of message should be conveyed to the doctor using those means? This is a crucial point, so let's keep reminding ourselves as we proceed through the workshop.

Here, thinking about "what to communicate and how to change the doctor's perception" based on insight will change the brand team members' awareness of insight - the deep needs and way of thinking of customers. In particular, there are many people who are accustomed to the SoV supremacy of constantly being told to "make calls! give lectures!" and who have been imprinted with the idea that action means "visiting many events." This workshop is also effective in getting such people used to the way of thinking of the insight era.

I think that's pretty much the end of the day. The results of the workshop should be compiled in a concise format. The input from the brand team members obtained here will be very important information and will be extremely useful in formulating future brand and action plans.

We took our time to complete the pts journey, insight, and current/desired workshops. Although we said we were starting the process of creating a brand plan, it seems like the topic has become quite diffuse, so next time we will begin the process of turning the work we've done so far into a strategy, conducting market analysis, segmenting, targeting, and turning it into the brand plan that you envision, so stay tuned!

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(11) Current/Desired Perception

Insight based Brand Plan

In the previous article, we provided insight into key stakeholders (doctors and patients) at high priority moments for the success of the Pts Journey. The moments related to the success of product X are
  1. Seek treatment: If you feel symptoms, visit a doctor for hay fever.
  2. Brand Choice: Doctor prescribes product X among antihistamines
  3. Taking frequency: Number of times you take the medicine/hay fever season (once or twice)
  4. Pts acceptance: Patient acceptance of product 

I think it would be a good idea to list all of the above and create insights and barriers/derivers for all of your key stakeholders, but I also feel that due to volume constraints, you should only be able to document one to three important items and include them in the brand plan presentation.

Today's theme is current perception and desired perception, but these terms themselves are not commonly used and are just my own personal use. (sometimes, referres as "as is" "to be" 

Current perception
(Business-related hints) Key stakeholders’ true opinions ≒ insight
Desired perception
If key stakeholders think this way, they will take the actions we aim for ≒ positioning


"Desired perception in product X formulation" often translates to positioning. However, talking about concepts alone is not very clear, so let’s try doing current/desired perception for the moment of (1) seek treatment: going to the doctor for hay fever if you feel symptoms. There are three types of key stake holders:
  • A patient who visits HCP every year for hay fever
  • Patients who have symptoms but do not visit HCP (but buy OTC)
  • Patients who have symptoms but do not visit HCP (do not buy OTC)
In the previous article, "Insight into PTS Journey!", the word "insight" can be thought of as "current perception."





At this moment, the action we would like the patient to take (and from the perspective of pts' outcomes) is to "visit a clinic to relieve the symptoms of hay fever," but the insight of "patients who already visit the clinic every year for hay fever" provides a valuable hint for the desired perception of "patients who do not visit the clinic."

Let's consider the current/desired perceptions of a patient who has symptoms but does not visit the hospital (but purchases medicine at a pharmacy). It is different if product X has not yet been launched and pre-launch activities are carried out on an extensive scale, but in most cases pharmaceutical companies will not take active action against "patients who do not visit the clinic" until "after product X is released," so let's consider desired perception assuming that product X has been launched. (When conducting pre-launch patient activities, it is better to think of the opposite: desired perception before product X is launched, i.e., when product X does not exist.)


Taking inspiration from the insights of "people who visit the clinic every year," I tried to create a desired perception like this.

"Whenever I had symptoms of hay fever, I would buy OTC , but apparently there is a medicine that is effective for a month after taking it once. It seems like the cost wouldn't be that different from buying OTC medicine, and if I do not have to take it after the symptoms appeared, I can feel "Huh? I don't have any hay fever symptoms! I can forget that I have hay fever!" So I'd like to go to the hospital and try the medicine."

Ideally, I would like to reduce the wording about Product X and focus more on "seek treatment," but given that OTC drugs have become so widespread and the line between them and prescription drugs in terms of effectiveness is becoming blurred, without information about Product X, it would be difficult to get this patient group to visit the clinic, and that is why the wording related to Product X has been included. The insight for this patient group is that they take medicine when symptoms appear, don't really like taking medicine, and find it troublesome, so why not take advantage of that and push them to say, "Just one dose and you'll be free of hay fever! If so, why not come and see us?" As for the actual situation, I recommend that the Brand Team think about and create the desired perception in an insight workshop, which I will write about in the next article, but will customers actually visit the product if they truly believe that? This will be confirmed in future qualitative and quantitative surveys, and we will continue to refine the desired perception so that it hits home even more and resonates with customers before it goes to market.

Once the current perception and desired perception of the target customers, in this case "patients who have symptoms but do not visit HCP (but purchase OTC)," have been determined, the action or key messages are to fill that gap. In this case, the key message that needs to be conveyed is the element that is needed to achieve desired perception.
  • Aware drug that lasts for a month after one dose exits.
  • Free from the hassle of both symptoms and medication, you can forget you have hay fever = Hay Fever Free
  • Medical costs are not much different from OTC
I think this is something that needs to be conveyed.

In Japan DTC using the brand name is not possible, all of these are quite difficult, and it seems that nothing can be done before the product is launched... It would be effective if patients who have used product X spread the word on social media, but pharmaceutical companies cannot orchestrate this, so we considered current/desired perception, but it seems difficult from a compliance perspective to take effective "action"...

Let's change our mindset and think from the perspective of the key stakeholder (doctor) in the Brand Choice moment of "selecting product X among antihistamines." In particular, doctors whose perception we want to change are those who are reluctant to prescribe product X.


Current perception was created based on the insights of doctors with a low intention to prescribe product X, while desired perception was created based on the insights of doctors with a high intention to prescribe product X.




When we put current and desired together like this, the elements to achieve desired perception are
  1. Understand Product X profile, benefits (effectiveness lasts for one month after one dose + safety, reduced medication burden, price, etc.)
  2. Side effects may last for a month = Safety concerns dispelled
  3. Patients who are satisfied with their existing antihistamines also want to be prescribed product X (less medication = hay fever free, they forget they have hay fever!)
1 is essential for the launch, as it is necessary to disseminate the product's characteristics, so this should be done through sales reps and digital, but to what extent can data be used to dispel safety concerns? Since the doctor's experience is important, shouldn't we consider doctor-to-doctor? 3, how do we convey the voice of patients who want product X? Perhaps there is patient QoL data from the Phase 3 trial and we can use this to create a visual or a short movie like a TV commercial that highlights the comfort, feeling and psychological benefit of not taking medicine = hay fever free = being able to forget that you have hay fever? And so on... When you get to this point, I think you will come up with various ideas to change current to desired. The next step is to organize these ideas, put them together in the form of a strategy, and decide on your actions.

I often conduct 1 full day workshop about insights (current perception) and drivers/barriers for each moment and key stakeholder in the pts journey, and also consider what key messages and actions should be taken based on the current/desired perception in this article. When brand team members gather in a workshop and spend a day thinking about their insight, current/desired perceptions, and even actions to fill the gaps, it not only deepens the brand team members' understanding of the market and customers, but also deepens everyone's understanding of "what they need to do for whom, and how they need to change their customers' current way of thinking," which is a huge plus for creating a brand plan and formulating an action plan.



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(10) Insight for Pts Journey

Insight based Brand Plan

Now we have created a quantified Pts journey (consistent with the Forecast model).



From the pts journey, we determine which moment has the greatest opportunity and then decide on a strategy, but this pts journey is a "quantitative" pts journey and has not yet incorporated any "qualitative" elements.

Quantitatively, the number of missed patients in the moment of "getting non-patients to visit the hospital" is the largest, so it is certainly the biggest opportunity; however, in order to "turn an opportunity into a business and connect it to sales of our own products," it is a matter of (quantitative size) x (qualitative feasibility) of that moment, so a qualitative judgment is also required.

Of course, "getting patients who don't visit the hospital to visit" is a huge opportunity in terms of the number of patients who are missed, but this is quite difficult in Japan, where DTC displaying brand names is not possible. The further upstream you go on the pts journey, the more difficult it becomes for your actions to make an impact. Therefore, it is necessary to thoroughly understand and analyze moments from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives and prioritize which moments we should focus on.

For many brands, getting customers to choose their products through brand choice is often their top priority. There are brands for which "brand choice is the only moment they have to work on," and in those cases it may be better to break down brand choice a little more, but we'll save that for another time.

The moments we might want to focus on for product X are:

  1. Seek treatment: If you feel symptoms, visit a doctor for hay fever.
  2. Brand Choice: Doctor prescribes product X among antihistamines
  3. Taking frequency: Number of times you take the medicine/hay fever season (once or twice)
  4. Pts acceptance: Patient acceptance of product X

In the case of Product X, Treatment choice (selecting an antihistamine to treat hay fever) has been omitted as this is already a standard treatment, but there are many brands that include Treatment choice.

I keep writing that in the age of insight marketing, the customer’s true feelings are important, but true feelings are qualitative information, so it is very important to think about each moment qualitatively. But what kind of qualitative information should we think about?

  • Who are the key stakeholders?
  • What are key stakeholder's true feelings about this moment?
  • What are the drivers/barriers for key stakeholders?

First, let's consider "(1) Seek treatment: If you experience symptoms, visit a doctor for hay fever." The key stakeholder is, first and foremost, the patient. Patients may go to the hospital at the urging of their family or friends, so the people around them are also stakeholders, but let's first dig deeper into the patient themselves. At this time, we pose ourselves as three types of people (= recruiting conditions for quantitative patient surveys) -- "patients who visit the hospital every year for hay fever," "patients who have symptoms but do not visit the hospital (those who purchase medicine at a pharmacy)," and "patients who have symptoms but do not visit the hospital (those who do not purchase medicine at a pharmacy)" -- and dig deep into their true feelings. At this time, the results of the qualitative/quantitative survey, especially the differences in the amount of consent questions between patients in the groups 1-7, will provide a major hint and evidence of the difference.




Sentences in bubbles are insight of each pts segment. I think it's a good idea to start off in a Brand Team Workshop by having everyone write down their notes on Post-it notes and then organize them. It's important to note that by focusing on the moment of "whether or not to go to the doctor every year for hay fever symptoms," you might be tempted to expand and write about Product X, but the purpose here is to think deeply about the patient's feelings and true thoughts at this moment in order to arrive at insight.

The Driver came out from "Patients who visit HCP every year" and the Barrier came out from patients who do not visit HCP every year. Here, we have entered the numbers from the quantitative survey results (the sum of the top 3 agreements on a 1-7 level of agreement). When creating personas for each segment, try including quantitative information about the persona's important elements from your research results, as this will make them much more persuasive. For this reason, don't be afraid to include consent questions 1-7 in your quantitative research.

When we add this qualitative information to our considerations, it seems that the hurdles to getting patients who are satisfied with OTC products or who are not even taking medication to visit the hospital are quite high. Perhaps you can determine priorities such as, "It would be better to focus on Brand Choice for a while after Launch."

Let's also look at brand choice.  We will cross-tabulate the results of the quantitative survey by doctors with a high intention to prescribe product X (50% or more) and those with a low intention to prescribe product X (less than 50%), and make extensive use of these results to think in the same way as patients. With new products, I usually start by cutting them down to the level of prescription intent (or high, middle, low), but if you have any other ideas like "Maybe cutting them like this would be better," then please try them out and cross-tabulate the patient survey results to see the results.



(This is almost same as presented in the ps journey qual research, but please understand that this is a setup where the hypothesis we made before the survey was correct)

Looking at it this way, Product X's claim that "effects last for one month with a single oral dose" has a strong impact and leads to an intention to prescribe it, but doctors who do not prescribe Product X often seem to have barriers in that "I think the long-lasting effect is good, but I'm worried about what will happen if side effects occur" and "I'm not having any problems with my current antihistamines in the first place."

As some of you may have noticed, this often leads to segments that are divided into those based on the doctor's high/low intent to prescribe. At launch, we identify the differences in thoughts and feelings between doctors with a high intention to prescribe and those with a low intention to prescribe, create an adoption ladder, and use that to divide segments. This is easy to understand for both the brand team members and medical representatives, so we recommend it. This time, by prescription intention

  1. Knowing product X = awareness 
  2. Prescribe product X to some patients (<50%) Trial/usage
  3. Product X: First-choice antihistamine (50% or more) Loyal customer

In that sense, this segmentation based on prescription intention is similar to the adoption ladder. I will cover Segments in more detail in another article.

When doctors who have a low intention to prescribe product X understand that product X is a good choice but they are worried about side effects and that the only thing they are not particularly having trouble with with their current medication is the barrier, the action that should be taken becomes clear. In the early stages of launch, it is important to firmly establish that "a single dose of product X lasts for one month" and "its safety is comparable to that of existing drugs" (this is exactly the same as in the era of SoV supremacy). Then, (this is the Insight era) we will consider the potential needs and barriers of doctors and customers, and in the case of product X

Physicians are particularly satisfied with existing antihistamines

In this regard, you may come up with ideas such as creating a system to make patients aware of their feelings and the many needs they have, but I will touch on this in the section on action planning.

Also, there are cases where "the doctor recommends product X, but the patient refuses," so let's also try the patient for product X.



Pts quant research also tells that patients will accept product X if doctors recommend it with confidence, so we need to think about how to get doctors to confidently recommend product X to their patients.

I don't think it's necessary to do this for every moment in the Pts journey, but for a particularly important moment, in this case Brand Choice, I think it would be a good idea to hold workshops etc. with the Brand Team, focusing on that moment. As for segments, which I will touch on next time, brand choice is overwhelmingly important (at launch) for Product X, so I think it would be a good idea to create a doctor segment at this moment.

The idea was to qualify the Pts journey, in other words, to infuse insight into it, but I got sidetracked as I was thinking about various things while looking at the survey results, pretending to be a doctor or a patient. However, qualifying the Pts journey allows you to properly prioritize each moment, organize segments, key messages, and information that can lead to action. There are quite a few cases where this is not done properly (the ghost of SoV supremacy?), but I recommend adapting to the age of insight marketing and trying to do it.

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(9) Pts Journey based Forecast Model

Insight based Brand Plan

In last article, we quantified pts journey like this.



When asked, "What is the relationship between quantified pts journey and the Forecast model?" I answer, "That's a stupid question, but quantified pts journey is (almost) the Forecast model itself." Since they are the same thing, it would be natural for the numbers in the Brand Plan, such as the number of patients and prescription rates, to be the same as the Forecast model, but we often see cases where the numbers in the pts journey and the forecast model do not match, and plans with inconsistent numbers are criticized in reviews.

If the brand manager creating the Pts journey is the one creating and tweaking the forecast model, the numbers rarely match, but there are cases where this is not the case (forecaster or insight manager is creating the forecast, etc.), and in those cases, if the numbers don't match, I take it as a sign that collaboration isn't going well and this is dangerous.

In my case, I often create and update the quantification of Pts journey and the creation of forecast models in parallel. What we will do is to first simply convert the slide shown above into Excel.


This is basically just a PowerPoint slide converted into Excel, so we need to make it clear where the input cells are so that we can make a forecast model (i.e. run a simulation).


I like to make the input cells yellow like this. Next, make sure to enter the Data source into the model’s EXCEL. If you don't do this, you'll have trouble later when you ask "What was the basis for this assumption?" or when the person in charge changes. In the Excel image above, the data has not yet been expanded horizontally by years and months and therefore is not yet a forecast model, so let’s first expand it horizontally by years.

It's starting to look a lot like a forecast model. Because this is a rough model, we do not use categories such as "patients who visit the hospital every year," "patients who have visited the hospital but not every year," and "patients who have no history of visiting the hospital," but rather allow us to perform a simulation in which the rate of outpatients based on severity is gradually increased. To track patient surveys every year and calculate the "outpatient visit rate by severity," we ask patients to describe their symptoms and then we can determine the severity based on those symptoms and then calculate the outpatient visit rate, etc.

If in the future the product share of product X among patients who visit the hospital every year becomes 60%, and targeting patients with hay fever who do not visit the hospital every year or patients who have never visited the hospital becomes a high priority strategy, then the model will be changed accordingly. On the other hand, the reason we are not doing this now is because for a while after launch, the group of patients who visit the hospital every year for hay fever + patients who visit the hospital but not every year = in terms of the pts journey, patients who are prescribed antihistamines are our high priority target customers. In this way, it is quite rare to change the forecast model to match the strategy, but I would encourage you to give it a try. If your brand strategy or KPIs change, you might want to change your forecast model as well. I think it's a good idea to keep this in mind. Simulations can be easily performed by linking the pts journey and Forecast models. It is also a good idea to link it to KPIs. If the number of new patients acquired each month is the KPI, then that number should be the input item (shaded in yellow). If market share is the KPI, then that should be the input item (shaded in yellow).

Let's go back to our Forecast model for Product X. The moments and opportunities we can influence that were identified in the Pts Journey, including outpatient rates, and drug prices that change year by year,
  • % of visit HCPs
  • Number of visits/hay fever season
  • product X rx%
  • Patient acceptance of product X
  • Drug prices
The annual model with this assumption is now complete. About a year and a half before launch, it's time to come up with a production plan, so we actually create a similar model by month. It would be possible to break down this yearly model into monthly units, but since actual sales and KPIs are also updated monthly, it is recommended that the Forecast model also be based on a monthly unit from the start. It's easy to tally up the data by year.

Although we have written about the requirements for a forecast model here, it can easily become a "precise but difficult to use model" that no one on the brand team can handle, that is difficult to simulate, and that is merely the self-satisfaction of the forecast craftsman. Since it is impossible for a Forecast model to boast 100% prediction accuracy, we recommend that you validate the Forecast model using actual monthly sales and use a simple Forecast model that is easy to simulate and easy to handle, while allowing for deviations of around 5% up or down.

I got question on LinkedIn, "How do you use prescription intentions obtained from quantitative survey results in the Forecast model?" Assuming that the market research questionnaire is well designed and bias is avoided as much as possible,

Market research prescription intentions= Rx intention when drs fully understand Product characteristics ,when key messages were received ≒Peak share

In this case, doctor prescription intention for product X is 40%, so we set the peak share of product X at 40% and incorporate it into the forecast model, and we do the same for the yearly model above. The reason for this is that the survey design covered all doctors who may prescribe antihistamines (i.e. 100% market coverage), and the prescription intention of doctors after understanding the product characteristics, key messages, and pros/cons presented in the survey can be interpreted as "the prescription intention of doctors who prescribe antihistamines after understanding the product characteristics, key messages, and pros/cons of Product X" even after the actual launch. However, depending on the actual market coverage, account opening, etc., if the coverage is 80%, for example, we will discount by that amount.

In the past, I have been involved in new products and indication expansions, and have looked into the prescribing intention and actual peak share based on a quantitative survey prior to their launch. When the prescribing intention in the survey was 50%, within a ±20% range, the actual peak share was in the range of 40-60% in many cases, so I think this interpretation is fine in practice.

Another thing that makes you wonder about the forecast is the uptake curve leading up to the peak share. Many factors come into play, such as product characteristics (how revolutionary it is), the competitive situation in the market, and the order in which it was released in that market, but it is common to benchmark the uptake of products in similar situations, and I agree with this. However, in reality, it is often difficult to find a similar product or market, so in such cases, the team will often agree on a basic strategy of keeping the dosage low in the first year, due to a two-week prescription limit, and then taking about three years to reach its peak. I also think it would be a waste of a huge amount of energy to put into this.

I have also asked doctors and pharmacists in quantitative surveys, "When will it be adopted? Will you start using it?", but I haven't had much success. So, although it's a difficult decision, I think it would be realistic to launch it based on benchmarks and team agreement, see the uptake at release, and then make adjustments as appropriate.
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(8) Quantify Pts Journey by Market Research Results

Insight based Brand Plan

Usually Launch Brand Team is established two years before the release of Product X, and I think it took about six months to complete the quantitative and qualitative research to get to this point. With one and a half years to go until launch, the Senior Management in Japan, APAC, and Global are starting to feel the daily pressure to "Create a concrete Launch Brand Plan! Take action! KPIs!!"

The pressure is there because the Launch PMO (project management office) was launched and the Launch project manager was suddenly appointed from within the company.

  • Launch experience
  • Marketing experience and skills
  • Forecasting and research experience and skills
  • Project management skills

are required, but it can be quite difficult as there are cases where a brand manager is put in charge of the role and ends up panicking and failing, or where an external consultant is brought in but has no knowledge of pharmaceutical marketing and is merely a Ganz chart expert, or where a foreign external consultant who has experience in pharmaceutical marketing but cannot speak Japanese is sent in, which leads to communication difficulties and an increase in work and delays. (I got a bit off topic)

Let's return to the topic of quantifying Pts journey. After conducting pre-research web searches, literature, desk research, and qualitative/quantitative research, I think it’s safe to say that you’ve now gathered almost all the information you need to create a Launch Brand Plan.

Although it is unclear whether this will be included in the quantification of Pts journey, the quantitative physician survey is designed to be "scalable to the entire market." In this quantitative survey of physicians, we set the broad definition as "physicians who have experience of administering antihistamines to a patient with hay fever at least once in the past year" and request the survey from "all physicians registered on the survey company's panel," and then from the ratio of (physicians eligible for the survey) / (physicians requesting the survey), we can estimate the number of "physicians who have experience of administering antihistamines to a patient with hay fever at least once in the past year." At this time, make sure to ask the survey company in advance to provide you with information on screen-outs (the number of doctors per consultation who were not surveyed). If you don't tell the research company this, you won't get the data.

I have never conducted market research on hay fever myself, so I can only imagine what the results would be based on my imagination and desk research, so please bear with me as from this point onwards my findings will likely differ quite a bit from reality.

First, let's consider: "How many doctors are there nationwide who treat hay fever?" and "How many facilities treat hay fever and prescribe antihistamines?"

The "Handbook of Welfare Statistics" is useful for determining the denominator. You can find out the number of doctors (by medical specialty) and hospital private practice doctors nationwide.

# of physicians are

Anyone involved in marketing in the pharmaceutical industry would benefit from keeping these numbers in mind. The rest is from the quant market research results shows

  • 100% of HP's ENT and allergy doctors
  • 50% of HP's internal medicine doctors
  • 50% of HP's ophthalmology doctors
  • 50% of private practice physicians (regardless of medical specialty)
see hay fever.  Now we can calculate

  • HP ENT drs: 937*100%=3,937 drs
  • HP allergy drs：102*100%＝51 drs
  • HP internal medicine drs：21,520*50%=10,260 drs
  • HP ophthalmology  drs：4,886*50%＝2,443 drs
  • GP : 100,000*50％＝50,000 drs5万人

It was estimated that a total of 66,651 doctors, including 16,651 HP doctors and 50,000 private practice doctors, are prescribing antihistamines nationwide. (I don't know if the actual number is more or less, because I've never actually investigated it.)

Regarding patients, we have roughly estimated that 50 million people nationwide have hay fever symptoms, of which 16 million are taking prescription oral medications and another 16 million are taking over-the-counter oral medications, based on Pts Journey, created from a web search. We will also say that a quantitative patient survey confirmed that this ratio (about half and half) was also reached.

Once quantitative research results available, you can understand the Pts journey in greater detail

  • There are 50 million patients.
  • Patients who receive prescription drugs from hospitals and take them every year = 10 million
  • 15 million patients who sometimes (or have sometimes) received prescription drugs and took them, though not every year
  • Patients who do not take prescribed medicines from hospitals = 25 million

That's what we found out from the survey results. Similarly, by summarizing the severity of symptoms, prescription of antihistamines, intention to use product X, etc., we were able to create a quantitative Pts journey that looks something like this.




The purpose of quantitative Pts journey is not to "create" but how to use Pts journey (quantitative) is important, and the main purpose is to quantitatively grasp "where the opportunities are." Let's think about it from upstream.

（1）Ensuring that patients return to the clinic annually
Of the 50 million people, only 20%, or 10 million people, visit the hospital every year. If we could get all of them to "visit the hospital every year," sales of Product X could increase five-fold at most. Of course, this would mean an increase in the number of patients with mild symptoms visiting the hospital, so it would not be five-fold, but there is still a huge opportunity here.

We present information about Product X even to patients who do not visit the hospital every year, and as a result, they have shown a fairly strong desire to take the medication. Therefore, we would like to somehow send a message once a month, using Product X as an opportunity to encourage patients to visit the hospital in search of Product X.

However, it is very difficult for Pts Journey to encourage upstream behavioral change (i.e. raising awareness of the disease and encouraging people to seek medical help), and there are not many success stories. When looking at the quantitative pts journey for Global and other companies, we often see the message, "This is a big opportunity! Do something!" However, there are also large DTC elements, and there are things that can be done and things that cannot be done. This is where we need to be ambitious and think of various ideas, but at the same time, we also need to calmly consider the feasibility.

(2) Increase antihistamine prescription (Treatment choice)
Most hay fever sufferers are already prescribed antihistamines, so it would be difficult to increase sales of Product X by increasing opportunities here. This is often referred to as treatment choice because it is a choice based on treatment category, such as "drug therapy" or "counseling."

(3) Increase product X share % in antihistamines (Brand choice)
For most brands, this moment = brand choice is often the most important thing. For product X, “doctors’ intent to prescribe = 40%.” Although it is a generic drug with many competitors, Product X has a very clear point of differentiation in that it is "effective for one month," so I think that such a high prescription intention is reflected in the results of the quantitative survey (of course, there are people who would say that it should be even higher). In order to actually "increase this 40%," it is necessary to know "what are the drivers/barriers for prescribing Product X?" based on doctors' honest opinions, and I would like to show this in the qualitative Pts journey section.

(4)Reduce patient refusal rates
Quant research results show that even when doctors are willing to prescribe medication to their patients, 20% of patients refuse. While 20% may seem like a small number, reducing your rejection rate can have a significant impact on your sales. Here too, we need to know the honest reasons why patients refuse to take product X even when their doctor suggests it be prescribed.

(5)Increase prescription frequency of product X
Research shows that "Product X is prescribed 1.3 times on average." The hay fever season lasts for about two months, so the maximum should be 2.0, but the average number of prescriptions is low for reasons such as the desire to take medication only when the hay fever is particularly severe. Here too, it is necessary to understand the true feelings and needs of doctors and patients and come up with countermeasures.

Actually, we've been gathering information about the hay fever market and Product X for about half a year now, and have been using our brains a lot, so what we're writing here may be a matter of organizing and summarizing our thoughts, but we think it's best to pay attention to things like whether there are pitfalls or hidden opportunities.

Furthermore, by quantifying and summarizing the pts journey in this way, the slides can provide senior management and global people in Japan with an easy, quantitative understanding of the state of the hay fever market in Japan. I believe that most companies have this type of quantified pts journey included in their brand plan templates, and it is a very user-friendly solution that is updated annually even after the brand is launched.

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